TQQQ DCA Backtest
If you'd invested $700 every month, how long to $1M?
TQQQ (ProShares UltraPro QQQ) is an ultra-high-volatility leveraged ETF that tracks three times (3x) the *daily* return of the Nasdaq-100. Compared with QQQ (which holds the same Nasdaq-100 at 1x) or QLD (2x), its swings are overwhelmingly larger — both up and down. The 'UltraPro' in the name and the number 3 are best read as a signal of just how much conviction (and nerve) it takes.
Investing since May 2015, that's about $1.01M today · invested $94.5K · annualized +37%
Try it with your own numbers →
What '3x daily' actually means
TQQQ is designed so that when the Nasdaq-100 rises +1% in a day, it moves about +3%, and when the index falls −1%, it moves about −3%. The critical word is *daily*. The manager resets that 3x exposure at each market close (rebalancing), and because of that, the cumulative return over several days or months is NOT simply 3x the index.
So if the Nasdaq-100 rises 10% over a month, TQQQ does not rise exactly 30%. Because it resets to 3x every day, the result depends on the path — the order in which prices rose and fell — and it usually drifts in a way that's less favorable than your intuition expects.
Volatility drag — a much deeper hole than 2x
In a choppy, sideways market that keeps rising and falling, leverage nibbles away at your principal — this is called volatility drag (decay). Say the index rises +10% one day and falls −10% the next, repeatedly. At 1x, 1.10 × 0.90 = 0.99, only about a 1% loss. At 2x, 1.20 × 0.80 = 0.96, about 4%. At 3x, 1.30 × 0.70 = 0.91, about 9% gone.
Same chop, but the drag steepens from 1% → 4% → 9%. Bumping the multiplier just one notch from 2x to 3x more than doubles the loss. Even without any net direction, TQQQ quietly melts just from bouncing around. This effect compounds the more volatile the market and the longer you hold.
Why recovering from a big drop is so hard
A −50% loss already needs a +100% gain just to break even — lose half and you have to double what's left to get back to square one. The problem is that a 3x product falls much deeper for the same index decline.
For example, if the Nasdaq-100 crashes −20% in a day, TQQQ drops about −60%, and it would need +150% to recover. The deeper the fall, the exponentially longer the road back. Structurally, in a tech sell-off it's entirely possible to fall around 80% from the peak, and at that point getting back to breakeven can take years — or may never happen. And the past doesn't guarantee the future.
Is it right for long-term accumulation and holding?
Some people approach TQQQ as 'I believe in the Nasdaq for the long haul, so I'll park it at 3x,' but because of the mechanics above, long-term buy-and-hold is hotly debated. Clip out only the stretches with a long uptrend and it looks spectacular — but the real test is whether you can survive the deep crashes and sideways drag in between. Its expense ratio is also higher than a 1x ETF, so costs stack up the longer you hold.
Realistically, it's a product to consider only with a slice small enough that losing it won't shake your life, and only once you're truly prepared to weather big drops again and again. With the same contributions, the outcome splits to extremes depending on the luck of your start date. Shift the start date around in the calculator above, and the gap between the best and worst outcome for the very same plan shows up right there in the numbers.
Want to change the amount, buy day, or goal? Use the button above to calculate it yourself.
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This content is for informational purposes and is not investment advice or a recommendation. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions.