VT DCA Backtest
If you'd invested $700 every month, how long to $1M?
VT (Vanguard Total World Stock ETF) does exactly what its name says — it holds the whole world's stock market in a single basket. Vanguard launched it in 2008, and it holds thousands of stocks across developed and emerging markets: the U.S., of course, plus Europe, Japan, and emerging economies. It's the ultimate diversifier, and it fits the mindset of 'I don't know which country will rise, so I'll just own the entire world.'
Even over the full period, that's about $476.88K today · invested $152.6K · annualized +9%
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What's inside a single share of VT
VT tracks the FTSE Global All Cap Index. It spans developed and emerging markets and includes everything from large caps down to small caps, so the number of holdings runs into the thousands. Buy a single share and you effectively invest a little in 'the entire global stock market.'
Spreading this widely sharply reduces the risk of staking your fate on any one country, sector, or company. If one region's economy struggles, another can pick up the slack. And since it's a 1x product with no leverage, there's no volatility-drag worry either.
It says 'whole world,' but the U.S. is over half
Here's an easy point to misread. Because VT holds each country's stocks by market-cap weight, the U.S. — the world's largest market — occupies the biggest slot, around 60%. The rest is divided among Europe, Japan, China, and other emerging markets.
So VT isn't 'the whole world minus the U.S.' — it's closer to 'the whole world with a big helping of the U.S.' When U.S. markets were strong, VT rode that tailwind heavily; conversely, when the U.S. lags, it can behave more defensively than a U.S.-concentrated fund.
The trade-off versus U.S. concentration (SPY, QQQ)
Over the past decade or so, the U.S. and tech stocks led global equities. So looking at that same window, VT's total return lagged the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq-100 in many stretches, and that gap shows up in the result box above too. Choosing VT means giving up some of the excess return from a single country (the U.S.) in exchange for spreading widely the risk of not knowing which region will lead.
This diversification is a bit like an insurance premium. Which country pulls ahead has shifted from era to era, and there's no guarantee U.S. dominance lasts forever. Whether to concentrate in one market to aim for more, or spread across the whole world for peace of mind, comes down to your own temperament and judgment.
Total return, long-term accumulation, and your start date
With VT, the return that matters over the long run isn't the price chart alone but total return — price appreciation plus the dividends its thousands of holdings pay. The numbers in the result box above are computed on a dividend-reinvested, adjusted-close basis, so they reflect that total return rather than price alone. Remember that the holdings span the entire globe even though it trades as one simple fund.
As a broadly diversified 1x product with no leverage, VT fits dollar-cost averaging well — but betting on the whole world doesn't let you dodge bear markets. When global equities sink together, VT sinks with them, and the outcome changes depending on your start date. The past doesn't guarantee the future, so run it through the calculator yourself under various conditions before deciding. This content is for information, not investment advice.
Want to change the amount, buy day, or goal? Use the button above to calculate it yourself.
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This content is for informational purposes and is not investment advice or a recommendation. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions.